Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

*You can an index of all predicted categories here.

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

2. Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)

3. John Hawkes (The Sessions)

4. Denzel Washington (Flight)

5. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Alternative: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

This category couldn't possibly be tighter. Day-Lewis aside, I can see any combination of four from the remaining five making the cut; and that doesn't even begin to mention longshots like Denis Lavant and Jean Louis Trintignant. Jackman has the disadvantage of being in a musical, something the Academy is not very fond of for leading men (see: Gere in Chicago, McGregor in Moulin Rouge!) but is winning rave reviews for his work. John Hawkes's film is quickly fading but his costar Helen Hunt is certanily a nominee and anyone who casts a ballot for her will do the same for him. Denzel Washington's film has no hope of registering with any other branch but the flip side is his celebrity charisma and his terrific performance. Joaquin Phoenix wasn't nominated by SAG and that's very alarming. He clearly doesn't care about awards, has publicly announced his disdain for the whole thing and isn't generally a likeable person, but he has given one of the showiest and strongest performances of the year. If he's not nominated, the Academy's decision will look like a faux pas of catastrophic proportions in retrospect. Bradley Cooper, on the other hand, was nominated by SAG and is winning career-best reviews. Then again, a lot of people think best in his career doesn't mean much. Are voters willing to go there with him yet?

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)
4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
5. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Alternative: Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of Southern Wild)

Tighter than the best actor race is the female counterpart. I imagine the chorus of naysayers who label this category weak year in and year out are hanging their heads in shame, because in terms of quality or unpredictability, this is possibly the top acting category this year. But what of the precurors, so far? Usually one of the double nominees always misses out on an Oscar nomination and I'm hoping it's Mirren's turn this year. It's a lazy performance in a mediocre film by a well-rewarded performer who can do this in her sleep. Voters have no reason to tip their hats to her again. Still, assuming Cotillard and Watts can both capitalize on their SAG and Globes double, only one of Riva and Wallis can make the cut. That still leaves out Rachel Weisz, whose performance was nominated at the Globes against all odds, after already winning the top prize from New York critics. And the narratives here are strong for everyone. Youngest nominee ever, oldest nominee ever, two French nominees in one year, a critical darling in an obscure film getting nod on the strength of her performance alone....

Best Supporting Actor

1.Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
2. Alan Arkin (Argo)
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
4. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
5. Christopher Waltz (Django Unchained)
Alternative: Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)   

What is happening this year? Really. All these categories are extremely competitive despite the prescursors being almost through. The Django men can cancel each others' votes out since DiCaprio and Waltz have been singled out by different critics' group (and both of them by the Globes) and Jackson is winning "comeback" reviews. Javier Bardem, with proven ability at winning Oscars for villainous roles, was chosen by SAG and is now firmly in the race, though whether or not the anti-Bond Academy will deviate from their traditions this year is yet to be seen. Robert De Niro missed the Globes but that certainly won't translate to an Oscar snub. That leaves us with the two final contenders: Eddie Redmayne, who could be riding a hitherto invisible wave of support for Les Misérables, and Matthew McConaughey who would be a surefire nominee if gray-haired Academy members could be convinced to watch him thrust his oily hips.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
4. Amy Adams (The Master)
5. Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Alternative: Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) 

I've left Anne Dowd and her self-financed campaign for Compliance out, but voters can be tempted by her if a) they don't feel like rewarding a slight effort like Marigold Hotel by nominating Dame Smith or b) they don't feel like rewarding The Master or view it (incorrectly) as a two man show or c) they do not warm to (or under, rather) Nicole Kidman's urine. All this won't matter in the end, of course, when Anne Hathaway's on the stage, thanking everybody whom she ever met.