2011 Oscar Predictions: May

I waited for the Cannes Film Festival to finish before posting my first set of predictions for this year (Although if you do follow the blog, you’ve already seen my predictions in the best picture category here.) This is not to say that Cannes is the best indicator of how Americans respond to films. After all, the Cannes jury is a niche group of nine people while the Academy is a 6000-member body of voters, with completely different tastes. (Raise your hand if you think The King’s Speech had a chance of scoring anything at Cannes!)

Nevertheless the critical response to some of the titles at the festival can be quite indicative of how the films will play to the audiences this side of the Atlantic. If you haven’t heard already, Terrence Malick’s long-awaited Tree of Life, an unseen favourite of this blog, was awarded the top prize and the biggest news from the fest was the brouhaha about Lars von Trier and his persona non grata status from now on.

I’ve never predicted awards this far in advance, but it’ll be interesting to see how I’ll score. Also, if you’re wondering why I’ve picked these categories among all of them, these are the ones I track throughout the year and honour on the blog myself.

Without further ado:

 

Best Picture

1- War Horse (dir. Steven Spielberg)

2- J. Edgar (dir. Clint Eastwood)

3- Young Adult (dir. Jason Reitman)

4- The Descendants (dir. Alexander Payne)

5- Ides of March (dir. George Clooney)

6- Moneyball (dir. Bennett Miller)

7- Super 8 (dir. JJ Abrams)

8- A Dangerous Method (dir. David Cronenberg)

9- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (dir. David Fincher)

10- Tree of Life (dir. Terrence Malick)

Alternates: Drive (dir. Nicolas Winding Refn) and Hugo Cabret (dir. Martin Scorsese)

Nominees?

I brought Tree of Life down from number 2 all the way to number 10 despite its win at Cannes. I have yet to see the film (June 10^th is the release date in Toronto) but the voices I’ve heard seem to declare it more obscure than I’d originally thought. If anything, the Palme d’or will increase the expectations even further and that usually doesn’t help any film. Think of how high the expectations must have been for The Social Network after the critics went nuts for it.  I also think the enthusiastic words about Drive and its general appeal (action film, old school car chases, crime elements, Ryan Gosling) can lead to good numbers at the box office which can translate to awards success if it’s not too much of a B-movie. Finally, I still maintain that the Academy will have to welcome Cronenberg to the club at some point and if they want to do it, what better opportunity than a biopic about Jung and Freud?

Best Director

1- Steven Spielberg (War Horse)

2- Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)

3- Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

4- George Clooney (Ides of March)

5- JJ Abrams (Super 8)

Alternate: Jason Reitman (Young Adult)

I can’t help but think this is another 2005 for Clooney where he leads The Descendants as an actor and directs another successful film of his own. As for Reitman, I originally thought the film’s weak spot could be that it’s female-oriented and hence will have a smaller chance at big nominations with the Academy, but then I thought of Juno. There’s one or two female driven films every year that succeed and if Meryl Streep, Michelle Willams and Glenn Close’s films don’t catch on anywhere outside Actress, then Reitman has a better chance of being in the conversation.

Best Actor

1- Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)

2- George Clooney (The Descendants)

3- Woody Harrelson (Rampart)

4- Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

5- Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)

Alternate: Michael Fassbender (Shame)

Leo is pretty much a shoe-in, even if the film doesn’t gain traction elsewhere. He’s been a megastar for so many years now and a lot of people believed he deserved a nomination last year. The role is exactly the type the academy goes for. George Clooney’s role is a perfect fit for him too and I don’t think he’ll be left out; besides, if you’veseen the trailer, you can sense that he’s trying to come out of his shell a little bit. Pitt has Tree of Life too so he’ll be in the conversation and if they campaign him for supporting there, he could probably score a double nod. Shannon’s film was a hit at Sundance and a surprise winner at Cannes and he’s a previous nominee (Revolutionary Road) so he could take a fifth spot.

Best Actress

1- Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)

2- Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

3- Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)

4- Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

5- Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

Alternate: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

I’m counting on Swinton’s terrific reviews from Cannes and the build-up from the past two years. She was criminally robbed for Julia in favour of weaker performances in 2009 (Still can’t believe Sandra Bullock won) and last year’s I am Love had its own supporters too. Kevin’s release will have a huge impact on how her campaign will play out though. I have a feeling Rooney Mara will the take the young “it” girl spot this year (instead of say, Elizabeth Olsen or Emily Browning) because a) she was Terrific with a capital T in The Social Network and definitely has the chops and b) Noomi Rapace was in the conversation last year despite her unknown actress status and the film’s foreign language.

Best Supporting Actor

1- Brad Pitt (Tree of Life)

2- Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)

3- Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Ides of March)

4- Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)

5- Steve Buscemi or Ben Foster (Rampart)

Alternate: Niels Arestrup (War Horse) or Albert Brooks (Drive)

Am I overestimating Rampart? Or maybe I’m underestimating War Horse? Spielberg isn’t exactly known for getting actors nominated for Oscars, but both Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan got their lead performers nominated. I’m not sure how big Arestrup’s role is but if his performance is as good as his turn in A Prophet and War Horse scores big, he won’t be ignored. Pitt’s fate will depend on his campaigning (lead or supporting) and Hoffman’s will probably depend on his other supporting role (Moneyball).

Best Supporting Actress

1- Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)

2- Judi Dench (My Week with Marilyn)

3- Maris Tomei (Ides of March)

4- Carey Mulligan (Shame)

5- Elle Fanning (Super 8)

Alternate: Viola Davis (The Help)

This category looks open wide and aside from Redgrave doesn’t seem to have a major contender. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a weak year, just that from the outset, nothing looks certain yet. I’m including Fanning because she had a small group of strong supporters last year that would certainly grow if her performance is good. It will also depend on how seriously the voters will take Super 8. Is it a summer blockbuster or will it make an impact beyond that?

Best Original Screenplay

1- J. Edgar (Dustin Lance Black)

2- Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)

3- Take This Waltz (Sarah Polley)

4- Take Shelter (Jeff Nichols)

5- Rampart (Oren Moverman and James Elroy)

Alternate: Young Adult (Diablo Cody)

I’m counting Woody’s success in this category. I feel like if the film is critically acclaimed as it seems to be, this category is the place they’ll want to honour him. He was last nominated for the same prize in 2006 for Match Point. Take Shelter’s festival success in America and Europe is a hint to its crossover potential and I can see it getting a nod here (and possibly in the top category?) It’s one of my most anticipated films of the year now.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1- War Horse (Lee Hall and Richard Curtis)

2- The Descendants (Alexander Payne)

3- The Ides of March (George Clooney and Grant Heslov)

4- A Dangerous Method (Christopher Hampton)

5- We Bought a Zoo (Cameron Crowe and Aline Brosh McKenna)

Alternate: Moneyball (Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zailian)

This far in advance, I already feel really confident about the top three predictions. All three directors are unlikely to screw up their films and the type of story is what the voters usually go for. Beyond that, things can swing in any direction based on the acceptance of the films. 

Best Cinematography

1- War Horse (Janusz Kaminski)

2- Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki)

3- Hugo Cabret (Robert Richardson)

4- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth)

5- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II (Edoardo Serra)

Alternate: We Bought a Zoo (Rodrigo Prieto)

While the cinematography branch also has the tendency to nominate best picture nominees (like last year’s 5/5 roster) they sometimes do look outside the box a little bit (like 2006’s 0/5 overlap with best picture). But the films have to look pretty. I’m not sure about Harry Potter since the series’ only nomination in this category was given to a different DP. We Bought a Zoo has the potential to look pretty and Prieto is a terrific lenser, so it might slide in.

Best Editing

1- War Horse (Michael Kahn)

2- J. Edgar (Joel Cox, Gary Roach)

3- Super 8 (Marann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey)

4- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)

5- Hugo Cabret (Thelma Schoonmaker)

Alternate: Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol (Paul Hirsch)

This category is usually filled with Best Picture nominees regardless of how well they’re edited. In the past two years, where we’ve had ten best picture nominees, no film has managed a nod in this category while missing out on the top ten, which means I’ll probably be wrong about Hugo Cabret making it in one place and not the other. Bourne Ultimatum won this category despite not being nominated for best picture but that was before the expansion of that category. Can that ever happen again?

Best Art Direction

1- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II (Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillan)

2- War Horse (Rick Carter; Lee Sandales)

3- Hugo Cabret (Dante Ferretti; Dorothée Baussan, Francesca Lo Schiavo)

4- Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (Sarah Greenwood; Alison Harvey, Katie Spencer)

5- Jane Eyre (Will Hughes-Jones; Tina Jones)

Alternate: A Dangerous Method (James McAteer; Gernot Thondel)

Here is one category where most means best. The more visible the art direction, the easier it will be to get nominated. Period pieces and fantasy films usually do well here too. The Harry Potter series has been nominated 3 times before and given that this is their last chance to honour it, I think Craig is a shoe-in and actually a likely winner. I’m also counting on the magic of Scorsese’s regularly top-notch production designs and the team behind Sherlock Holmes (which was nominated two years ago). I’ll leave Rango out of my predictions even though I think it featured really praise-worthy work. This branch seems very reluctant toward animation and if Fantastic Mr. Fox and The Illusionist couldn’t do it, I’m sure Rango won’t either.

Monday's Words of Wisdom

"He's wonderful to work with. He's really amazing because he's simple. He's as simple as his films. He was exactly like his movies ... He loves movies more than anybody I've ever met in my life. You can take all this new Hollywood bullshit, get all of us guys sitting in a room together and he puts us away. He knows more about the movies than any of us ever will."

- Steven Spielberg, on working with one of my favourite directors of all time Francois Truffaut (1978)

I'm Helen Sinclair!

Recently I had a conversation with a friend who had just caught up with David O. Russell's The Fighter. We mostly talked about Melissa Leo and Christian Bale and their Oscar-winning performances. He didn't like either performance that much, particularly Leo's, whom he thought was too showy and overacted. To an extent, I find myself agreeing with him since I thought Amy Adams gave the best performance in that film, but as I've mentioned before on the blog, I don't think either of those performances are overacted unnecessarily. Dickey and Alice are larger than life characters and the energy in the performances is essential to the development of those characters. 

The point is, I don't think a loud performance is a bad one if the role requires the performer to be loud. And when it comes down to proving how a showy performance can be a good one, my go-to example has always been the same. A loudmouth, larger than life, scenery chewing character that is nevertheless one of the most complicated and entertaining ever put on screen: Dianne Wiest's Helen Sinclair in Bullets Over Broadway. 

Wiest well understood the boundaries of this role and knew how significant her delivery was to the character and the film's success. It's a self-consciousnly campy and overplayed performance but her comic timing and consistency in carrying the running jokes along make Helen Sinclair one of the most memorable characters Woody Allen's ever written. 

"- Look I haven't had a drink since new year's.

- You're talking about Chinese new years!

- Naturally! Still, that's two days!"

Not coincidentally, I think, Bullets Over Broadway is the last film by Allen to live up to the promise of his golden days. The star of every Woody Allen film is usually his own script, but I find that one problem with his more recent flicks - aside from the fact that he keeps repeating himself - is that his performers usually can't compare with the ones he used in the 70s and the 80s. Not everybody can fit into the mold of his brand of comedy, not even Larry David. His only recent film to come slightly close to the success he had in the past was Vicky Cristina Barcelona and that one had a star turn by Penelope Cruz.

Allen's new film, Midnight in Paris, opened in Cannes earlier this week and was met with acclaim. I'd be surprised if it's anywhere as good as Bullets, but I'd be pleased with a Vicky Cristina Barcelona level mini-triumph.

Monday's Words of Wisdom

"My car's my best friend. My office. My home. My location. I have a very intimate sense when I am in a car with someone next to me. We're in the most comfortable seats because we're not facing each other, but sitting side by side. We don't look at each other, but instead do so only when we want to. We're allowed to look around without appearing rude. We have a big screen in front of us and side views. Silence doesn't seem heavy or difficult. Nobody serves anybody. And many other aspects. One most important thing is that it transports us from one place to another."

- On his relationship with cars and why they feature so prominently in most of his films 

40s...

How about the 40s, eh?

Drive-thru beer? 

Amazing!

What Will They Like This Time?

My love-hate relationship with the Oscars is never ending. I love to bitch about their choices all the time, and yet, I can’t get enough of them. Even this early on, almost nine months in advance, I’m curious to know what films will tickle their fancies and what reason I’ll have to hate/love them for this year. Who’s this year’s Sandra Bullock? Will Cronenberg be ignored like he was for A History of Violence? Will royalty or WWII porn reign over more modern creativity like it did this year? Or what will be this year’s beautiful surprise the way In the Loop’s screenplay nomination was, or Bright Star’s costume design nod? Is it possible they choose something as offbeat as Dogtooth again?

He's directed Videodrome, Dead Ringers, Crash and A History of Violence and he's never been nominated!

Anyway, I’ve decided to only look at the best picture category for now and think about the rest later, but looking at these titles, one can think of several obvious guesses in the other races as well. Bearing in mind that some smaller titles are not really known this far in advance, and that this year’s Sundance line-up didn’t have a major hit like Precious or The Kids are All Right, these titles are the ones I find most likely to be nominated at the end of the year (in decreasing order of likeliness):

1- War Horse (dir. Steven Spielberg)

With 13 nominations and four wins, Spielberg is one Academy’s all time favourite directors and he’s been away for six years now. War Horse sounds like the ultimate Oscar bait film with its sentimental young kind in the middle of WWI plot. As long as it’s not awful, it will find its way in the top ten, and given Spielberg’s track record, it will not be awful.

Most Recent Parallel: Letters from Iwo Jima (but the academy responds to quality world war films all the time, even if they don’t scream awards bait. Inglourious Basterds anyone?)

2- The Tree of Life (dir. Terrence Malick)

Malick is one of America’s most respected filmmakers. Of his past four films, only one was nominated for best picture, but I imagine in a field of ten, that number would have been higher. Anticipation for this film is sky high, and unlike The New World, this one gets a summer release, which gives everyone enough time to see it and form an opinion. If past experiences are any indication, Malick’s films only grow in stature over time, so I’m going to count this one in.

Most Recent Parallel: Malick’s films are really one of a kind. In some ways, P.T. Anderson’s There will be Blood is the most similar.

DiCaprio on the set of J. Edgar

3- J. Edgar (dir. Clint Eastwood)

Eastwood’s relationship with the academy has dwindled a bit in recent years, but if anything’s gonna make them love him again, it’s a gay-themed biopic about a controversial political figure with Leo DiCaprio in the lead. 

Most Recent Parallel: Milk; but depending on your definition of a biopic, in the past decade the Academy nominated at least 14 of them for the top prize. Then they started the new decade by crowning another as the best of the year, so parallels are plenty.

4- The Descendants (dir. Alexander Payne)

Alexander Payne’s last film was nominated in a field of five and more importantly, his films almost always deliver. He himself has been nominated three times and won once for writing Sideways. He’s written the screenplay for this one as well. Clooney is the lead here and his reputation in Hollywood won’t hurt either. He’s lead a film to a best picture nomination every other year now (2005, 2007 and 2009) and if that pattern’s to continue, 2011’s his turn again.

Most Recent Parallel: The Kids Are All Right

5- Ides of March (dir. George Clooney)

This year could be another 2005, when Clooney directed a film to best picture nomination while winning an acting prize for another film. Prestige political films can be the academy’s cup of tea if they’re well made, and the cast of this film is terrific (Clooney, Gosling, P.S. Hoffman, Giamatti, Tomei, E.R. Wood) and it already looks like a SAG ensemble nominee, which never hurts.

Recent Parallel: Good Night and Good Luck

6- Young Adult (dir. Jason Reitman)

Jason Reitman’s last two films really hit AMPAS’ sweet spot. He’s back with another dramedy, scripted by his Oscar winning collaborator on Juno, with Oscar winning Charlize Theron in the lead. If the film is as good as I’m hoping it is it can’t be counted out. Besides, The Descendants aside, the line-up is going to need some more light fare.

Recent Parallel: Up in the Air

7- Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (dir. David Fincher)

The foreign version of this film was a hit, so much so that the previously unknown Noomi Rapace was gaining traction for her performance. Fincher has a lot of momentum and they kind of feel sorry for his fate last year too. At the very least, one can imagine Rooney Mara in the conversation for Best Actress, but we have to think, thematically and most likely stylistically, this is much more similar to Fincher’s ignored films (Seven, Zodiac) than his nominated films (Benjamin Button, The Social Network). Then again, this is the type of film that can really benefit from the expansion to ten though.

Recent Parallel: Not quite sure with this one! Sadly, crime films are not really their favourite genre.

8- A Dangerous Method (dir. David Cronenberg)

They can’t ignore Cronenberg forever, can they? He’s such a unique and original voice and has been making great films for two decades now. Here he seems to have toned down his usual grimness and gone a bit more toward the typical bait. A biopic about Carl Jung and Sigmund Freud, starring three incredibly talented actors (Fassbender, Knightley, and Mortensen whose last collaboration with Cronenberg resulted in a Best Actor nod for Eastern Promises) and set on the eve of WWI seems to have everything going for it.

Recent Parallel: Ref. J. Edgar. Biopics are really popular with the academy; The King’s Speech was set on the eve of another World War as well. Going further back in history, this film really reminds me of Amadeus for some reason.

9- Hugo Cabret (dir. Martin Scorsese)

With an unlikely slate of animations set for release this year, Scorsese’s first venture into children’s films can take the Pixar spot this year. He hasn’t tackled this genre before, but it’d be foolish to worry about that. Shutter Island was a relatively surprising box office hit and Hugo Cabret has even more financial potential. If it makes some big money, then it might take the populist spot on the list.

Recent Parallel: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

10- Contagion (dir. Steven Soderbergh)/Super 8 (dir. J.J. Abrams)

Either Steven Soderbergh’s disaster film will bring him back in the race, or JJ Abrams’ Super 8 will take the spectacle spot. Many believed that nominating Avatar and District 9 together prevented Star Trek from getting in, but Super 8 looks less genre and more 80s Spielberg, which is definitely a good thing when it comes to the Oscars. On the other hand Soderbergh’s disaster movie has a great cast, and sometimes action films that are heavy on the drama fare well. Super 8 is almost certainly a summer hit and if it delivers, it can hold on to the buzz all the way through the year.

Recent Parallel: Inception

Other potential nominees

Take This Waltz (dir. Sarah Polley)

This Canadian treasure had her first film Away From Her nominated for two big Oscars: Screenplay and Actress, and we’ve seen films nominated for the top category with less than that in a field of ten. The academy has a tendency to ignore lightweight efforts but at the same time, they usually keep a spot open for less serious but high quality efforts (e.g. The Kids Are All Right). If it gets a proper release, I think it can score.

Moneyball (dir. Bennett Miller)

The concept doesn’t really sound special. Miller’s only feature film to date (Capote) was nominated for the top prize but that one was a biopic about an important figure in 20^th century American art and had tons of buzz for Phillip Seymour Hoffman. This one doesn’t exactly compare in hype, but if it’s a good film, it won’t be ignored. Hoffman is back here, although supporting Pitt’s lead and that can’t hurt either. Pitt is sure to be in the spotlight because of his bigger film and Hoffman turns brilliant performances in the smaller roles too. Lastly, it’s penned by Aaron Sorkin who’s hot off his win for The Social Network.

Rampart (dir. Oren Moverman)

The Messenger, Moverman’s first film was one of the best war films of recent years and one of the best films of its year. Harrelson was nominated for his work there and he’s back again. Sure, cop dramas are not the safest bet but if it’s anywhere near as good as The Messenger, I think it’ll be a serious threat.

Extreme long shot?

Cars 2 (dir. John Lasseter, Brad Lewis)

There have been sequels than improved on the original before, and if anyone can do it, it’s going to be Pixar. Are they gonna use this opportunity to take a break from Pixar or is Cars 2 going to be a critical hit that cannot be ignored? For now I think it’s the former.

Carnage (dir. Roman Polanski)

It’s not clear whether it will be released this year. Even if it does, it might be too theatrical in its setting. The extent of support for Polanski in the academy is unclear too. Could this be The Pianist again or will it be more like The Ghost Writer? My guess is that given the subject, it will be the latter, but with that cast, one has to wonder.

 

Long Shots

We Need to Talk about Kevin (dir. Lynne Ramsay) with Tilda Swinton and John C. Reilly

We Bought a Zoo (dir. Cameron Crowe) with Matt Damon and Thomas Hayden Church

The Eye of the Storm (dir. Fred Schepisi) with Geoffrey Rush and Charlotte Rampling

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (dir. Tomas Alfredson) with Gary Oldman and Colin Firth

My Week with Marilyn (dir. Simon Curtis) with Michelle Williams and Emma Watson

Albert Nobbs (dir. Rodrigo Garcia) with Glenn Close and Mia Wasikowska

Shame (dir. Steve McQueen) with Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan

Trailer Time: Martha Marcy May Marlene

This is the type of trailer I have no complaints about. Despite the Sundance buzz around the film and its leading star Elizabeth Olsen, I wasn't particularly interested in it aside from minor curiousity, but the trailer does the job. It's moody, beautifully edited, and it doesn't give too much away about the film either. If the film is as good as this trailer suggests,we can expect a major critical hit. 

John Hawkes' role looks sort of similar to his Oscar nominated turn in last year's Winter's Bone, but he pulled that one off so well, I can't wait to see what he can do this time around. 

*The US release date is October 7th (limited) and no Canadian release date has been announced yet.

Monday's Words of Wisdom

“For those who think I’m a snob, the list probably won’t disappoint. If you haven’t come across some of the titles before, hopefully you’ll look into giving them a chance. They may not move you the way they moved me, but that’s the real joy of moving outside of the Hollywood system. Once films are not being made to please as many people as possible, they stand a much better chance of pleasing YOU in a transcendent way that only movies can.” 
- a filmmaker and columnist at InContention, on his list of favourite films from 2010 which included lesser known titles like Nenette, Videocracy and Daddy Longlegs