1- The Artist
2- The Descendants
3- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4- War Horse
5- The Help
6- Midnight in Paris
7- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
10- Tree of Life
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball finally enters my top ten. I initially thought the film wouldn’t have the legs to survive through the long season but it doesn’t seem to be leaving the conversation. Plus, there are bound to be baseball fanatics and Brad Pitt fans in the academy, a combined group that probably surpasses the required amount of number one votes.
1- Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
2- Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
3- Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
4- Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
5- Terrence Malick (Tree of Life)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
If Daldry’s film makes it in the line-up for best picture, he will most likely make it here too, which means my predictions are probably wrong. But I couldn’t keep myself from imagining legends like Allen, Malick and Scorsese all in there together.
Best Original Screenplay
1- Midnight in Paris
2- Young Adult
3- The Artist
4- Martha Marcy May Marlene
I realize that including A Separation, even as the alternate, is only wishful thinking but seriously, this category is still wide open and Sony Pictures Classics must have had some campaign in mind when they picked its release date. Just the other day, during The Hollywood Reporter’s directors’ round-up, Alexander Payne himself wastalking about how much he loves this Iranian gem. If critics rally behind it and enough people see it, it’s TOTALLY possible.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1- The Descendants
3- War Horse
4- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
5- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
As usual, this category is packed with best picture possibilities and it’s a crowded bunch this year, too. Just think about the names I’ve left out: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Drive, Hugo, We Need to Talk about Kevin...
Acting and tech categories after the jump....
|Michael Fassbender in Shame|
1- George Clooney (The Descendants)
2- Jean DuJardin (The Artist)
3- Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
4- Michael Fassbender (Shame)
5- Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
DiCaprio’s been left out on the basis of the lukewarm reaction to J. Edgar, though it’s still entirely possible for him to get in. Fassbender still has to overcome the hurdle of that NC-17 rating and the overt sexuality of his film which shouldn’t be a problem in a just world, but oh well.
1- Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
2- Viola Davis (The Help)
3- Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
4- Charlize Theron (Young Adult)
5- Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
I think these six names will be the ones battling it out for nominations here during the entire season. If anyone can pose a threat, it will be Glenn Close. There are long shots like Swinton, Colman and Jones, but they will need HUGE campaign pushed and I just don’t see it happening.
Best Supporting Actor
1- Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
2- Albert Brooks (Drive)
3- Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
4- Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
5- Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Unlike the lead categories, both supporting categories seem wide open, and frankly, there have not been that many strong performances that I can recall. I’m not really a fan of Plummer’s work in Beginners, but I don’t anyone will complain if the man finally gets his due.
Best Supporting Actress
1- Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
2- Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
3- Octavia Spencer (The Help)
4- Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
5- Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Carey Mulligan (Shame)
Shailene Woodley was the only thing I liked about The Descendants. She was the only one escaped the pitfalls of the script and created a genuine character. (Just for the record, I think Clooney’s performance is great, but how he’s character’s written on paper totally brings him down). I have yet to see The Artist or Coriolanus or The Help, but I’ll be really for both Woodley and Mulligan if they can make it.
Hugo seems to be in the running for several tech nominations (and maybe wins). Even the art direction Oscar which I thought would finally go to Harry Potter as a reward for the whole series now seems to be Ferretti’s to lose. Meanwhile, I’m still looking forward to see how the guilds will respond to Tree of Life and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. In particular, I think I’ve made a mistake by leaving Tinker out of my editing nominations. I might have to change that in a month’s time.
1- Tree of Life
2- The Artist
3- War Horse
5- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Art Direction
2- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
3- The Artist
4- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
5- War Horse
The Skin I Live in
1- War Horse
2- The Artist
3- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Best Foreign Language Film
1- In Darkness (Poland)
2- A Separation (Iran)
3- Le Havre (Finland)
4- Where do we go now? (Lebanon)
5- Superclasico (Denmark)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Rumour has it, A Separation’s reception at the Academy screening was mixed. I’m not surprised given the make-up of voters in that branch but the executive committee will probably usher the film in. I can’t help but think the default holocaust nominee (Poland) will be in the line-up. Le Havre is both heartfelt and critically approved. The last two are still up for grabs.