Oscar Predictions: November

There aren’t many things left to say before NYFCC gets the ball rolling with the first critics’ award of the season tomorrow. Some changes have been applied here and there since last month following the release of a few films (J. Edgar has left my predictions in almost all categories). I don’t have the time to watch that many films these days. In the past month, I’ve really only seen The Descendants and I didn’t really like it much. I’m surprised that a film with such dull humour and ersatz emotional drama is so firmly in the conversation as the frontrunner. No matter what the critics say, however, I very much doubt Payne’s film can win the top prize. In any case, we’re still predicting nominations, not wins and the film will surely get nominations in the top categories.

Nominees?

Best Picture

1- The Artist

2- The Descendants

3- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

4- War Horse

5- The Help

6- Midnight in Paris

7- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Potential Additions

8- Hugo

9- Moneyball

10- Tree of Life

Alternative

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Moneyball finally enters my top ten. I initially thought the film wouldn’t have the legs to survive through the long season but it doesn’t seem to be leaving the conversation. Plus, there are bound to be baseball fanatics and Brad Pitt fans in the academy, a combined group that probably surpasses the required amount of number one votes.

Best Director

1- Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)

2- Steven Spielberg (War Horse)

3- Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

4- Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)

5- Terrence Malick (Tree of Life)

Alternative

Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

If Daldry’s film makes it in the line-up for best picture, he will most likely make it here too, which means my predictions are probably wrong. But I couldn’t keep myself from imagining legends like Allen, Malick and Scorsese all in there together.

Best Original Screenplay

1- Midnight in Paris

2- Young Adult

3- The Artist

4- Martha Marcy May Marlene

5- Bridesmaids

Alternative

A Separation

I realize that including A Separation, even as the alternate, is only wishful thinking but seriously, this category is still wide open and Sony Pictures Classics must have had some campaign in mind when they picked its release date. Just the other day, during The Hollywood Reporter’s directors’ round-up, Alexander Payne himself wastalking about how much he loves this Iranian gem. If critics rally behind it and enough people see it, it’s TOTALLY possible.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1- The Descendants

2- Moneyball

3- War Horse

4- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

5- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Alternative

The Help

As usual, this category is packed with best picture possibilities and it’s a crowded bunch this year, too. Just think about the names I’ve left out: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Drive, Hugo, We Need to Talk about Kevin...

Acting and tech categories after the jump....

Michael Fassbender in Shame

Best Actor

1- George Clooney (The Descendants)

2- Jean DuJardin (The Artist)

3- Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

4- Michael Fassbender (Shame)

5- Woody Harrelson (Rampart)

Alternative

Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)

DiCaprio’s been left out on the basis of the lukewarm reaction to J. Edgar, though it’s still entirely possible for him to get in. Fassbender still has to overcome the hurdle of that NC-17 rating and the overt sexuality of his film which shouldn’t be a problem in a just world, but oh well.

Best Actress

1- Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)

2- Viola Davis (The Help)

3- Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

4- Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

5- Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

Alternative

Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)

I think these six names will be the ones battling it out for nominations here during the entire season. If anyone can pose a threat, it will be Glenn Close. There are long shots like Swinton, Colman and Jones, but they will need HUGE campaign pushed and I just don’t see it happening.

Best Supporting Actor

1- Christopher Plummer (Beginners)

2- Albert Brooks (Drive)

3- Ben Kingsley (Hugo)

4- Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)

5- Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

Alternative

Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)

Unlike the lead categories, both supporting categories seem wide open, and frankly, there have not been that many strong performances that I can recall. I’m not really a fan of Plummer’s work in Beginners, but I don’t anyone will complain if the man finally gets his due.

Best Supporting Actress

1- Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)

2- Berenice Bejo (The Artist)

3- Octavia Spencer (The Help)

4- Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)

5- Sandra Bullock (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

Alternative

Carey Mulligan (Shame)

Shailene Woodley was the only thing I liked about The Descendants. She was the only one escaped the pitfalls of the script and created a genuine character. (Just for the record, I think Clooney’s performance is great, but how he’s character’s written on paper totally brings him down). I have yet to see The Artist or Coriolanus or The Help, but I’ll be really for both Woodley and Mulligan if they can make it.

Hugo

Hugo seems to be in the running for several tech nominations (and maybe wins). Even the art direction Oscar which I thought would finally go to Harry Potter as a reward for the whole series now seems to be Ferretti’s to lose. Meanwhile, I’m still looking forward to see how the guilds will respond to Tree of Life and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. In particular, I think I’ve made a mistake by leaving Tinker out of my editing nominations. I might have to change that in a month’s time.

Best Cinematography

1- Tree of Life

2- The Artist

3- War Horse

4- Hugo

5- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Alternative

Moneyball

Best Art Direction

1- Hugo

2- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

3- The Artist

4- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy

5- War Horse

Alternative

The Skin I Live in

Best Editing

1- War Horse

2- The Artist

3- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

4- Hugo

5- Moneyball

Alternative

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Best Foreign Language Film

1- In Darkness (Poland)

2- A Separation (Iran)

3- Le Havre (Finland)

4- Where do we go now? (Lebanon)

5- Superclasico (Denmark)

Alternative

Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)

Rumour has it, A Separation’s reception at the Academy screening was mixed. I’m not surprised given the make-up of voters in that branch but the executive committee will probably usher the film in. I can’t help but think the default holocaust nominee (Poland) will be in the line-up. Le Havre is both heartfelt and critically approved. The last two are still up for grabs.