2011 Oscar Predictions: July

This month’s predictions aren’t very different from June’s and August will be probably be the same, given that the most high-profile film released around this time is the Oscar-unfriendly Crazy, Stupid, Love. This cloud of confusion about the award season is of course bound to clear a bit in September, as every year, with Venice and Toronto film festivals running back to back from August 31^st to September 18^th.

Nominees?

Best Picture

1- War Horse (dir. Steven Spielberg)

2- J. Edgar (dir. Clint Eastwood)

3- The Descendants (dir. Alexander Payne)

4- Tree of Life (dir. Terrence Malick)

5- Ides of March (dir. George Clooney)

6- The Artist (dir. Michel Hazanavicius)

7- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (dir. Stephen Daldry)

Potential additions

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (dir. Tomas Alfredson)

A Dangerous Method (dir. David Cronenberg)

Young Adult (dir. Jason Reitman) 

I took Scorsese’s Hugo out and replaced with the cold but sleek looking thriller by Alfredson. Hugo looks more like a family holiday classic and an experiment for the director than an Oscar contender. Of course, we won’t know for sure until the film’s released but something tells me it won’t show up in the top category.

Best Director

1- Steven Spielberg (War Horse)

2- Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

3- George Clooney (Ides of March)

4- Terrence Malick (Tree of Life)

5- Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar)

Alternate

Stephen Daldry (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

The academy’s directors’ branch is more receptive to genre fare but I’m still not including Alfredson or Fincher. Daldry – nominated for all three of his previous films – seems like a good bet given the popularity of the book and its topic.

Best Actor

1- Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)

2- George Clooney (The Descendants)

3- Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)

4- Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)

5- Jean Dujardin (The Artist)

Alternate

Ryan Gosling (Ides of March)

I keep hearing Dujardin’s name these days and with that Cannes best actor prize – it got Bardem a nomination last year, remember? – and the Weinsteins behind the film, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was nominated. Michael Shannon’s chances will depend largely on the critics’ reception of the film, but if they give it enough push, and his performance is as good as his record suggests, he’ll be a good bet.

A lot of people are also calling this Ryan Gosling’s year. He’ll be ubiquitous with Crazy, Stupid, Love, Ides of March and Drive. If his competition with himself doesn’t damage him, he’s likely to get in for either of the latter two films.

Best Actress

1- Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)

3- Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)

4- Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

5- Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)

5- Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Alternate

Charlize Theron (Young Adult)

Aside from the teaser released for The Iron Lady, there’s still no buzz about anyone in this category so I’ll leave my predictions untouched. Although, to be honest, I'm not sure why I keep leaving Glenn Close out. Underestimating her chances? Probably.

She looked kind of light and even hammy in the trailer, but it wouldn't be her first nomination for a performance like that.

Best Supporting Actor

1- Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)

2- Jim Broadbent (The Iron Lady)

3- Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Ides of March)

4- Albert Brooks (Drive)

5- Niels Arestrup (War Horse)

Alternate

Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)

I’ll stick to my top six from last month, still believing that Christopher Plummer’s character in Beginners was too thin and the film too light to carry him through the season. That could change of course if the competition proves to be just as thin.

Best Supporting Actress

1- Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)

2- Andrea Riseborough (W.E)

3- Keira Knightley (A Dangerous Method)

4- Evan Rachel Wood (Ides of March)

5- Emily Watson (War Horse)

Alternate

Cary Mulligan (Shame)

Is it me or has this year really been even worse than usual for first half releases? We usually don’t see many of the nominees until later in the year, but this year we don’t even hear them (in terms of general hype). The Brit duo of Redgrave and Riseborough are the only ones who have managed to make any noise.

Best Original Screenplay

1- Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)

2- J. Edgar (Dustin Lance Black)

3- Take This Waltz (Sarah Polley)

4- Take Shelter (Jeff Nichols)

5- Rampart (Oren Moverman and James Elroy)

Alternate

Win Win (Thomas McCarthy, Joe Tibani)

I’m still keeping my hopes high for Win Win, although I have a feeling I shouldn’t be leaving Michel Hazanavicius out for The Artist. Midnight in Paris has seen an overwhelmingly positive reaction and a nomination for original screenplay is likely to be the academy’s reward. 

On a side note, if my predictions included Best Costume Design, I'd include Midnight in Paris there. It had an interesting blend of modern and period work. Maybe I'll add that categtory next month?

Best Adapted Screenplay

1- War Horse (Lee Hall and Richard Curtis)

2- The Descendants (Alexander Payne)

3- The Ides of March (George Clooney and Grant Heslov)

4- We Need to Talk About Kevin (Rory Kinnear, Lynne Ramsay)

5- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Eric Roth)

Alternate

Carnage (Roman Polanski, Yasmina Reza)

The academy’s writers’ branch has been friendlier to titles that the rest of the members don’t embrace in recent years, hence the inclusion of We Need to Talk about Kevin. Coriolanus might have a shot at nomination if the film gets enough attention, too.

Best Cinematography

1- Tree of Life (Emmanuel Lubezki)

2- War Horse (Janusz Kaminski)

3- The Artist (Guillame Schiffman)

4- Hugo Cabret (Robert Richardson)

5- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II (Edoardo Serra)

Alternate

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Jeff Cronenweth)

Totally forgot to include The Artist last month, but B&W films have a really good shot at this category. Recent examples of Good Night and Good Luck and The White Ribbon come to mind.

Scene from The Artist

Best Editing

1- War Horse (Michael Kahn)

2- Ides of March (Stephen Mirrione)

3- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)

4- Hugo Cabret (Thelma Schoonmaker)

5- Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol (Paul Hirsch)

Alternate

J. Edgar (Joel Cox, Gary Roach)

I’m increasingly leaning toward a double nomination for Michael Kahn for both his Spielberg movies. The one likeliest to fall in favour of Kahn is my wild card prediction, Mission Impossible.

Best Art Direction

1- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II (Stuart Craig and Stephanie McMillan)

2- War Horse (Rick Carter; Lee Sandales)

3- Hugo Cabret (Dante Ferretti; Dorothée Baussan, Francesca Lo Schiavo)

4- Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (Sarah Greenwood; Alison Harvey, Katie Spencer)

5- The Artist (Laurence Bennett)

Alternate

Jane Eyre (Will Hughes-Jones; Tina Jones)

Jane Eyre featured really high-quality work but I don’t know if it has the strong legs it needs. So far, it doesn’t look like the film is an awards contender at all. The Artist might feature here because of Hollywood’s love of old Hollywood (and it will probably show up in the Costumes, Make-up and Music categories too).