Oscars 2010 Predictions: Round 2, November

Not much has changed since the last time I posted my predictions and the only “contender” that I have watched is 127 Hours. Nevertheless, online buzz, media coverage, critics’ reviews and academy screening news, and personal mood swings have lead to a few of changes here and there.
For the next revision, which will come a month from now, I will have (hopefully) watched Black Swan, Made in Dagenham, The King’s Speech, The Fighter, How Do You Know?, and Rabbit Hole. That should make things a lot more clear for me.

Best Picture

1- The Social Network
2- The King’s Speech
3- Toy Story 3
4- Inception
5- The Kids Are All Right
6- True Grit
7- The Fighter
8- 127 Hours
9- The Way Back
10- Another Year*
Alternative: Winter’s Bone

Nominees?

Having watched 127 Hours now, I believe it’s good to go for a nod here.** I’m still putting The Fighter and True Grit slightly ahead of it though, based on word of mouth and previous directorial credits, respectively.
Winter’s Bone still looks a little too indie to me for a nomination in this category. Maybe when I finally watch the film I’ll have more faith in it. But everything else seems to be having one big obstacle in the way of a nod. Another Year? Very late release. Shutter Island? Very early release. Black Swan? Out of academy’s safe territory. Blue Valentine? That NC-17 rating.

Best Director

1- David Fincher (The Social Network)
2- Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
3- Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
4- Christopher Nolan (Inception)
5- Ethan and Joel Coen (True Grit)
Alternative: Peter Weir (The Way Back)
Fincher, Hooper and Boyle look like solid bets. I’ve put Nolan after these three but the truth is, whether you like his films or not, most people think he’s overdue for a nomination, and that should really help him out this year. He probably came in sixth two years ago with The Dark Knight. I think he’s in this year. The fifth spot is wide open now. Other than my two guesses, Darren Aronofsky, Mike Leigh or David O’Russell can all take that place.

Best Original Screenplay

1- Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right)
2- David Spiedler (The King’s Speech)
3- Christopher Nolan (Inception)
4- Mike Leigh (Another Year)
5- Sylvain Chomet (The Illusionist)
Alternative: Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy (The Fighter)
Predicting The Illusionist in this category is probably not the right move. We know now that the Best Animation category will only have three nominees this year, but if The Illusionist can get in there, then I can see it getting in here as well. Inception’s nomination may well depend on the reaction of the precursor awards. The dialogue was kinda clunky after all and the film might be seen as a more technical effort than a literal one.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1- Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
2- Michael Arndt (Toy Story 3)
3- Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Daniel Woodrell (Winter’s Bone)
4- Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours)
5- Ethan and Joel Coen (True Grit)
Alternative: David Lindsay-Abair (Rabbit Hole)
This seems like the category that would reward Winter’s Bone and Rabbit Hole if they fall short elsewhere. And the other alternative I could think of (The Way Back) looks like more of a director’s piece. I would personally like to see Roman Polanski sliding in here, but I doubt that can happen.

Best Lead Actor

1- Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
2- James Franco (127 Hours)
3- Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)
4- Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
5- Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Alternative: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Looks like team Bardem is laying low these days, so I’ve removed him from my predictions for now. He’s a recent winner, the film is apparently a downer, and to make it worse, it’s not in English. All of these factors mean that a strong campaign should be in order for him to have any chance.
Unlike the consensus that is taking shape in the blogsphere these days, I still believe Jesse Eisenberg has a good shot at the nomination. I don’t think Get Low was well-received enough, or even seen enough to get enough votes, but it’s Robert Duvall we’re talking about, so anything is possible.

Best Lead Actress

1- Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
2- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
3- Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
4- Lesley Manville (Another Year)
5- Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Alternative: Sally Hawkins (Made in Dagenham)
This looks like the most interesting category in the acting branch this year – if not the most crowded. From here, Portman and Bening appear to be battling it out for the win, but last year at this point, no on could imagine Sandra Bullock as the winner, so we’ll probably have to wait till we can call anything a lock. I have a feeling Sally Hawkins’ inexplicable snub for Happy-Go-Lucky might come in handy for her this year. This academy specializes in make-up nominations. Julianne Moore might come in the conversation as well; if the film is loved enough, why not have two female lead nominees?

Is she beloved enough to be nominated again? Why isn't she beloved anyway? She's SUCH a great actress.

Best Supporting Actor

1- Christian Bale (The Fighter)
2- Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
3- Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
4- Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
5- Ed Harris (The Way Back)
Alternative: Matt Damon/Josh Brolin (True Grit)
Even though the Coen Brothers have a good track record in this category (3 nominations and one win), I might be overestimating the possibility of Damon’s nomination. He was nominated for a bland performance in a mediocre film last year and he probably won’t have the momentum to carry himself on to nomination morning. Josh Brolin plays the villain, however, and that has paid off for Bardem and Macy before.
Does anyone see Timberlake as an Oscar nominee?

Best Supporting Actress

1- Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
2- Dianne Wiest (Rabbit Hole)
3- Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham)
4- Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
5- Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Alternative: Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
I understand that there’s no conversation about Mila Kunis, but it seems to me like there’s no conversation about anyone in this category, so I decided to go for her over Melissa Leo as my alternative. I also wonder about Jacki Weaver. The performance is, no doubt, t e r r i f i c. I think it’s a matter of visibility for this small foreign film.

Best Cinematography

1- Roger Deakins (True Grit)
2- Wally Pfister (Inception)
3- Enrique Chediak, Anthony Dod Mantle (127 Hours)
4- Jeff Cronenweth (The Social Network)
5- Danny Cohen (The King’s Speech)
Alternative: Russell Boyd (The Way Back)
I’ve included Danny Cohen this time instead of Matthew Libatique (Black Swan), on the account that Cohen is going to ride the best-picture-frontrunner waves. This might not be the smartest guess. The cinematography branch of the academy has nominated several films in the past few years that were certainly nowhere near a best picture nomination. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, and Assassination of Jesse James are the most recent examples that come to mind. ***

Russell Boyd won this award seven years ago for another Peter Weir film. can he do it again?

Best Editing

1- Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall (The Social Network)
2- Lee Smith (Inception)
3- John Harris (127 Hours)
4- Tariq Anwar (The King’s Speech)
5- Roderick Jaynes (True Grit)
Alternative: Lee Smith (The Way Back)
I initially predicted Lee Smith for both his films, but then the last time an editor was nominated for two films in the same year was Walter Murch in 1990; so I predicted the Coen brothers instead. No one will know how good True Grit actually is, until it comes out. If the Coens deliver though, they’ll have a really good shot at all the major categories, and they’ve been nominated twice in this category before. I left Black Swan out this time around. Is the film as well edited as the trailer?


*Is it me or is Another Year really getting the most half-assed release of all these films? It’s opening on December 31st in the U.S. (could it really have been any later?), and it has no scheduled release date in Canada (and I live in Toronto, North America’s third largest movie market!) It doesn’t even have a North American poster yet.

** I’m not planning on writing a review of 127 Hours, but in short, I can say that I liked but didn’t love it. It’s a powerful film and Franco is a commanding presence on the screen (definitely deserving of the nomination he will get), but for me, it lacked a certain je ne sais quoi, maybe a real emotional punch. It looks more like Danny Boyle’s flexing his directorial muscles -and boy is he not muscular- than trying to make a sympathetic film about this amazing adventurer.

*** It’s a sad fact knowing that Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford did not get a best picture nomination. The 2007 line-up is as strong as they come, but the well-crafted, emotional and insightful Jesse James is perhaps my most favourite film of the past decade.
My top five picks for that year were actually close to the academy’s though. I had Diving Bell and Jesse James instead of Atonement and Juno. 3/5 is far better than the academy usually does for me. Compare that to 1/5 in ‘08 (Milk being the one) and 3/10 in ’09.

The Best Memories of Childhood

Disney animation is probably responsible for my obsession with film in the first place. So it goes without saying that this video, that i found today at inconention.com, brought back all the fond memories of my childhood; the joy in belle's dance with the beast, the scare that Cruela might win those dalmatians, the sadness after Mufasa's death, and the excitement of watching each and everyone of these films for the gazillionth time.
Anyway, this video got me even more hyped up to see Tangled ASAP and also got me thinking about a Disney marathon.



P.S. Oscar nomination predictions coming up tomorrow!

Review: Certified Copy

Certified Copy
Year: 2010
Director: Abbas Kiarostami
Cast: Juliette Binoche, William Shimmel

If you look into Kiarostami’s oeuvre, you’ll find more than a few of films about coming to terms with one's self. His characters are often on a journey, one of self-discovery or of, simply, discovery. And his visual and thematic tropes have come to be recognizable instantly: the importance of cars (quite literally manifesting the journey), the long takes, the poetic absence of music. And the thematic common ground is the change of perception; not just our perception of the characters, but their perception of themselves and each other. In that regard, Certified Copy is no different than any of his last films. 

Abbas Kiarostami’s first film made outside of Iran, is about a French art gallery owner (Juliette Binoche) in Italy, who meets a British author (William Shimmel) on tour in Italy to promote his latest book - aptly titled “Certified Copy”. The two of them decide to take a ride around the beautiful and sunny scenery of Tuscany in her car. When they’re once mistaken for a couple by a cafe owner, the story takes an interesting turn, despite the nature of their relationship being kept ambiguous. When they stroll into role-play, we’re left wondering whether their relationship is real, or a copy.

Despite Kiarostami's usual scepticism, Certified Copy is a lot lighter and warmer than his earlier films; and in that, in my opinion, lies the strength of the film. The detractors of his previous films - a group in which I certainly cannot include myself - have always complained about the characters being inaccessible and despite my disagreement, I can see where they come from. In Certified Copy, however, the themes are universal. Whereas sympathizing with Taste of Cherry’s Mr. Badii can be difficult because we don’t know his past and his intent, Binoche’s character is easy to understand; even though we’re not aware of her past, her emotions ring true. Where Behzad’s arrogant and cold attitude doesn’t allow the audience to share his concerns in Wind Will Carry Us, James’ snobby manner only makes him more authentic.

One of the many things that make this film great is its simplicity. Like in much of his previous work, Kiarostami chooses a minimalistic approach to cinematography and art decoration. The handheld camera gives the film a fluid feel that harmonizes beautifully with the dynamic of the central relationship, while maintaining Kiarostami’s typical lingering close-ups. So does the set design or rather, set selection, which exaggerates the gentle fragility of Binoche’s character.


Juliette Binoche’s performance, that won her a well-deserved Cannes Best Actress trophy, is probably her career’s finest work. If authenticity is a factor, then she scores full points by all accounts. She’s just as great a frustrated mother as she is a passionate lover, and just as good a distressed sister as she is a tortured wife. William Shimmel, on the other hand, is not as completely immersed in the character as Binoche is; but his theatrical stiffness and his impenetrable manner fir the character just as well. To an extent, it’s hard for me to imagine anyone else as James.   

Certified Copy is a really hard film to write about though; not just because of the possible threat of spoilers, but because its narrative unfolds so delicately that makes the film a unique experience. It really has to be watched so it can be understood on a personal level. 

Grade: B+


*While editing this post, I noticed that I’ve stepped into the comparison zone one too many times. The truth is, it’s not difficult to identify this as a Kiarostami film, even if you don’t know he made it before going to the theatre. It bears a strong stylistic, and to a lesser extent, thematic resemblance to his previous works; and I say that as a compliment. I consider myself a big fan of his work and any new film by him is a real event for me, especially now that it has come 8 years after his last.

If you ask me, Certified Copy is the third best film he’s directed, after Taste of Cherry and Ten; although on a different day, I might say that I like Where is the Friend's Home? more. But I still believe that his best work to date is his screenplay for the Jafar Panahi-directed masterpiece The White Balloon. That’s a story for another day though.

5 Short Reviews

Easy A

80s high school flicks are probably my biggest weak point in film history, but I have a hard time believing there are many out there that are funnier and more entertaining than Easy A.

The lovable father and daughter

Emma Stone is a real star in the making and Stanley Tucci, Patricia Clarkson and Thomas Hayden Church are sure to remind you of what great actors they are (too bad there’s not enough of them in the film).

Grade: B

Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives

Although the film shows flashes of Weerasethakul’s mastery and his specific type of humour, these bits come far enough apart to make the whole film a really boring ride. Devoid of the magic in Blissfully Yours and the mystery in Tropical Malady, this one fell flat toward the end and left me completely disappointed.

Grade: C

The Social Network

Andrew Garfield as Eduardo Saverin in one of the year's best performances

David Fincher’s visionary style meets Aaron Sorkin’s razor sharp dialogue. Baxter and Wall’s cool control over the fast paced narrative is aided by Trent Reznor’s energetic score. Add to that the subtlety in Jesse Eisenberg’s portrayal of Zuckerberg and the range of emotions at display in Garfield’s portrayal of Saverin. What you get is the best film Hollywood has offered in a very long time; and this year’s best film, give or take The Illusionist.

Grade: A

The Hunter

Rafi Pitts tells an engaging story in this intense crime film, which he’s written, directed and stars in. Intensely acted and very well shot, it depicts the life of a man named Ali who goes on a search for his lost daughter. The Hunter’s cinematography captures both the dynamic nature of his journey with real energy and the gravity of his emotions with terrific lighting work.

Currently taking the top spot on my "Best Cinematography of the year" list

I’m really a sucker for films with great visuals, but The Hunter is not just about that. It’s also a great study of how we, as human beings, can act differently, or one can say inexplicably, under special circumstances. The last thirty minutes of the film and the conversations between Ali and the two soldiers are truly fantastic and challenging and the final scene is sure to really shake you up.

Bonus points:

Iranian militia, riding over the U.S. flag in protest

The opening sequence. A shot of one of Iran’s most famous political photographs symbolizes the tension that Ali’s generation grew up with in that particular era and reflects on the subtle political motifs of the film.

Grade: A-

If you live in the UK, The Hunter opened on October 29^th. Chances are that it won’t open any time soon in North America, if ever at all. Check out the trailer here though, and see it if you can get a hold of it.

The Housemaid

Leave the beautiful photography and the good performance by Jeon Do Yeon aside and you’re left with, well, not much else. The film starts out entertaining but with the cartoonish situations, paper thin characters and the contrived ending, it loses all its charm. While The Housemaid is, even to the end, somewhat funny and obviously sexually charged, more narrational focus could have definitely made it a better film.

Grade: B-

*The Social Network and Easy A stills taken from IMDB.